Democratic margin in national polls (dots) and this model's recency- and size-weighted average (line). Shaded band: 95% confidence interval on the average. A few outlier polls sit beyond the axis and are pinned at the edge (hover for values). The lower panel tracks the share answering undecided or other in the same weighted polls — the quantity that widens this forecast's uncertainty. Source: VoteHub poll archive.
Poll table (most recent 25)
House seat distribution
Democratic seats across 50,000 simulations. 218 needed for control.
Senate seat distribution
Democratic-caucus seats across 50,000 simulations. 51 needed for control (VP breaks ties).
Senate battleground
Market-implied probability the Democratic candidate wins, per race (Polymarket). Races priced beyond ~93% either way are omitted here but included in the simulation.
Undecided share, group by group
Social signal — Bluesky
Experimental indicator only; it does not enter the forecast. Post velocity and crude lexicon sentiment for the latest 100 posts per query.