MJO Forecast — AIFS-ENS

Real-time Multivariate MJO (RMM) phase-space forecast from the ECMWF AIFS-ENS ensemble (51 members to day 15), following Wheeler & Hendon (2004). Full three-channel projection: U850/U200 plus a pseudo-OLR channel built from −standardized tropical precipitation (tropical rain and OLR anticorrelate closely); falls back to wind-only if precip is unavailable for a cycle. The physics-based IFS-ENS (50 members) is overlaid in blue through the identical machinery whenever its data has landed — a direct AI-vs-physics comparison in the same coordinates. Amplitude is the radial distance (rings at 1, 2, 3). Observed track is recent ERA5/AIFS analysis (wind-only, verified within a few degrees of the official BoM RMM phase).

Latest init: 2026-09-01 12Z. Drag the slider to step through successive forecast runs (oldest → latest) and watch the predicted MJO track evolve.

Updated 2026-09-01 20:48Z · Auto-generated from the AIFS-ENS open-data feed. Methodology: NOAA CPC / Wheeler & Hendon (2004), EOFs from NOAA OLR + NCEP wind with the 120-day low-frequency filter removed; pseudo-OLR from −standardized daily precip vs an ERA5 1991–2020 band climatology.