How to read this page. Every issue of every model shown on the city page is compared with the observed daily high and low at ASOS airport stations across the lower 48 (Iowa Environmental Mesonet daily summaries), once the day is complete. Errors are model minus observed in °F: red is a warm forecast, blue a cold one. Every model is scored on exactly the station-days the consensus covers, so the comparison is like for like. MAE is the mean absolute error, bias the mean signed error, CRPS the continuous ranked probability score of an ensemble's daily-mean distribution (lower is better; for a single run it equals the absolute error). The consensus is the value the city page quotes.
Daily high — MAE by lead day
Daily low — MAE by lead day
Daily mean — MAE by lead day
Consensus advantage — MAE
Consensus advantage — CRPS
CRPS by lead day
Day by day — MAE of the daily mean at leads 1–3, by valid date
Forecast minus observed quantiles of the daily mean
By station